Nigeria Missed OPEC Oil Quota In Nine Months - Report

Data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reveals that Nigeria struggled to meet its OPEC production targets for the majority of 2025. Despite aggressive government efforts to curb oil theft and technical disruptions, crude oil output in December 2025 fell to 1.422 million barrels per day (mbpd). This represents a decline of 14,000 bpd from November’s figures and falls short of the 1.5 mbpd quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

​A retrospective look at the 2025 calendar year shows that Nigeria missed its OPEC ceiling in nine out of twelve months. The country began the year with a strong performance in January, producing 1.54 mbpd exceeding the target by over 38,000 bpd. However, this momentum was short-lived, as production dipped in February and March, with the latter seeing a significant drop to 1.40 mbpd, marking one of the widest deficits of the year.

​The mid-year period saw a brief recovery, with production hitting 1.51 mbpd in June and July, marginally surpassing the OPEC quota. However, the third quarter witnessed a sharp reversal, as output plummeted to a yearly low of 1.39 mbpd in September. This volatility underscores the ongoing challenges within the Nigerian oil sector, including aging infrastructure and security concerns in the Niger Delta region.

When factoring in condensates, the total liquid production figures offer a slightly more robust picture, though the downward trend remains evident. Combined crude and condensate volumes averaged 1.74 mbpd in January but ended the year at 1.54 mbpd in December. While condensate volumes helped pad the total production numbers, they do not count toward the official OPEC crude quota, leaving the core production gap unaddressed.

The NUPRC remains focused on stabilizing output, noting that the average crude production for December represented 95 percent of the required quota. As the 2026 fiscal year begins, the pressure remains on the petroleum ministry and regulatory bodies to resolve the technical and security bottlenecks that continue to prevent Nigeria from fully capitalizing on its assigned production capacity.