Senate Lowers Oil Benchmark, Approves ₦54.46tn Budget Framework

The Senate on Tuesday approved a revised Medium-Term Expenditure Framework and Fiscal Strategy Paper for 2026–2028, lowering Nigeria’s crude oil benchmark to $60 per barrel for 2026 and endorsing a ₦54.46 trillion federal spending framework aimed at cushioning the economy against global uncertainties.

The approval followed the adoption of the report of the Senate Committee on Finance, presented at plenary by its chairman, Senator Sani Musa, during a session presided over by Senate President Godswill Akpabio.

Lawmakers said the revised framework was informed by heightened geopolitical tensions, persistent volatility in the global energy market, and the need to protect oil-dependent economies such as Nigeria from external shocks.

As part of key adjustments, the Senate reviewed downward the crude oil price benchmark earlier proposed for the medium term, approving $60 per barrel for 2026, $65 for 2027, and $70 for 2028, citing uncertainties in the global oil market.

Despite the conservative oil price outlook, the Senate retained domestic crude oil production projections of 1.84 million barrels per day for 2026, 1.88 million barrels per day for 2027, and 1.92 million barrels per day for 2028, expressing confidence in ongoing sector reforms and efforts to stabilise output.

“The Senate also endorsed key macroeconomic assumptions, including exchange rate projections of ₦1,512 to the dollar in 2026, ₦1,432.15 in 2027, and ₦1,383.18 in 2028, alongside inflation forecasts expected to moderate to 16.5 per cent, 13 per cent, and nine per cent over the same period,” the committee stated.

“Real GDP growth projections were sustained at 4.68 per cent for 2026, 5.96 per cent for 2027, and 7.9 per cent for 2028, with emphasis on effective implementation of newly enacted tax reforms and improved revenue mobilisation as key drivers of economic expansion,” lawmakers added.

The approved framework puts total federal expenditure for 2026 at ₦54.46 trillion, with retained revenue estimated at ₦34.33 trillion, new borrowings projected at ₦17.88 trillion, and debt service obligations set at ₦15.52 trillion, as the Senate expressed optimism that faithful implementation would stabilise the economy and promote sustainable growth.