According to a recent CNN/University of New Hampshire poll, in a potential rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in New Hampshire, the current president has a slight advantage. While there is anger towards Trump, it seems that this anger may outweigh the dampened enthusiasm for another Biden term. In the poll, a narrow majority of potential 2024 voters in the state, 52%, would support Biden, with 40% favoring Trump.
When it comes to potential challengers for the party nominations, there doesn't seem to be a clear consensus on who would be a good choice. According to the poll, a significant percentage of people would be dissatisfied or even angry if certain individuals were to win the presidency. For example, the numbers go up from 48% for Senator Tim Scott to 76% for former Vice President Mike Pence. Similarly, on the Democratic side, most people would be unhappy with a win by Marianne Williamson (56%) or Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (59%).
In a potential rematch in New Hampshire, Biden has an advantage due to stronger support among Democrats. While 94% of Democrats would back Biden, 79% of Republicans would support Trump. However, Democrats are less enthusiastic about a Biden presidency compared to Republicans' enthusiasm for a Trump one. About 8 in 10 Democrats would be satisfied with a second Biden term, but only 31% report being enthusiastic, with lower numbers among younger Democrats. Conversely, 53% of Republicans say they would be enthusiastic about a Trump win.
Even though there may be a lack of enthusiasm, Biden is still the clear leader in the state's primary campaign. He has a strong support of 78% among likely Democratic primary voters. Other candidates like Kennedy and Williamson have single-digit support at 9% and 6% respectively. Additionally, a majority of Democratic primary voters, including three-quarters of Biden's supporters, have made up their minds.
The New Hampshire primary usually kicks off the election season as the first in the nation. While the date for 2024 hasn't been confirmed, it's expected to be in January. However, holding a January primary in New Hampshire would go against the Democratic National Committee's rules. If that were to happen, Biden might not officially enter the race. But interestingly, 69% of Biden supporters say they would still write him in on the ballot.
Most likely Democratic primary voters in the state don't see many viable alternatives to a Biden-led ticket. While 81% would be enthusiastic or satisfied if Biden won reelection, only a small percentage feel the same way about Kennedy or Williamson. Just 9% have a favorable view of Williamson, and even fewer have a favorable view of Kennedy. There's some desire for other candidates to run, with Bernie Sanders being mentioned by 7% of likely Democratic primary voters. As for Kamala Harris, 63% of Democratic primary voters are at least satisfied with her as Biden's running mate, but only 21% are enthusiastic. Overall, Harris has a negative view among New Hampshirites, and even among Democrats, her favorability is lower compared to Biden. The majority of likely Democratic primary voters approve of Biden's job performance, but age remains a top concern for many.